Timo Reinelt

I am an economist at the San Francisco Fed research department.

My research is in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and international economics.

I received my Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Mannheim in 2022. From 2022 to 2024 I worked at the ECB.

Conference organization:

2026 Pacific Basin Research Conference, November 20, 2026: Call for papers
2nd SF Fed Workshop on Expectations and Behavioral Macroeconomics, November 2, 2026: Program
1st SF Fed Workshop on Expectations and Behavioral Macroeconomics, October 27, 2025: Program, Photo

Publications

Corporate Debt Maturity Matters For Monetary Policy

with Joachim Jungherr, Matthias Meier, and Immo Schott, June 2026

Accepted for publication at the Review of Economic Studies

SF Fed Working Paper Fed Board IF Discussion PaperCoverage: Bloomberg, Torsten Slok (Apollo)

Firms' Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union

with Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, March 2026

Accepted for publication at the Journal of the European Economic Association

JEEA Final working paper SF Fed Working PaperSupersedes "SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms" NBER Working Paper CEPR Working Paper IZA Working Paper ECB Working Paper ECB Blog SUERF Policy Brief

Do Inflation Expectations Become More Anchored During a Disinflation Episode? Evidence for Euro Area Firms

with Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 115, May 2025

AEA P&P SF Fed Working Paper NBER Working Paper VoxEUCoverage: Hutchins Center at Brookings

Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates, and the Optimal Inflation Target

with Klaus Adam and Oliver Pfäuti

Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 149, January 2025

JME Final working paper CEPR Working Paper SUERF Policy Brief

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP

with Matthias Meier

Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 106 (4), 2024

REStat Final working paper ECB Working Paper

Working Papers

Market Power and the Heterogeneous Pass-through of Corporate Taxes to Consumer Prices

with Luca Dedola and Chiara Osbat, October 2025

SF Fed Working PaperSupersedes "Tax Thy Neighbor: The Pass-through of Local Corporate Taxes into Consumer Prices across German Regions" ECB Working Paper ECB Research Bulletin

Selected Work in Progress

Inflation Uncertainty, Markups, and Monetary Policy

with Saten Kumar, Matthias Meier, and Fabio Stohler

In preparation for the Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference Series on Public Policy
and the associated special issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics