Timo Reinelt

Economic Research
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco


I am an economist at the San Francisco Fed research department. My research is in macroeconomics and monetary economics, with a focus on firms.

I received my Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Mannheim in 2022. I also hold a Bachelor in Economics (B.Sc.) from the University of Tübingen and a Master in Economics (M.Phil.) from the University of Oxford.

Research Papers

Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 106 (4), 2024
Monetary policy shocks increase markup dispersion and lower aggregate TFP. This "misallocation channel of monetary policy" is generated by heterogeneity in price rigidity across firms.

Accepted, Journal of Monetary Economics
Housing price expectations deviate from rational expectations along a number of dimensions. These deviations and the behavior of housing prices can be jointly explained by housing price growth extrapolation. In a sticky price model with a lower bound, such housing price growth extrapolation implies that lower natural rates give rise to a significantly higher optimal inflation target than under full-information rational expectations.

Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies
Firms react more strongly to monetary shocks if a larger fraction of their debt is maturing at the time of the shock. A heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with financial frictions and endogenous debt maturity shows that a debt overhang and a roll-over risk channel explain this finding. Heterogeneous debt maturity implies larger aggregate effects of monetary policy.

Consumer prices respond strongly to changes in local corporate tax rates on producers. The pass-through of such shocks to producer markups is higher in sales regions and retailers where firms and retailers have higher market shares. This is consistent with weak forms of strategic complementarities.

Firms in the euro area have considerably heterogeneous inflation expectations and they disagree about future inflation more than professional forecasters but less than households. In response to information treatments about current or future inflation, firms update their inflation expectations in a Bayesian manner and revise their plans regarding prices, wages, costs, and employment.
Upcoming presentation:
- 2025 AEA Meetings, San Francisco

Selected Work in Progress

Measuring Market Power: Demand vs. Supply with Luca Dedola, Lukas Henkel, Colin J. Hottman, and Ryan Kim
The Precautionary Inflation Surge? Inflation Uncertainty and Price Setting with Saten Kumar and Matthias Meier

All material found on this website represents my own views. It does does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.